Virginia natural disaster risk
Virginia ranks #5 of 51 from the lowest population-weighted county-score mean in our state comparison. Its highest hazard-score means are hurricane, earthquake, lightning.
RelocateMath computes these state means by weighting FEMA county scores by population. A mean of county percentiles is not a national state percentile or an official FEMA state rating.
The vertical line marks county-score scale midpoint (50).
Find your county's risk in Virginia
All 133 county rows with a FEMA score are available below, initially ordered by population.
| County | Population | Risk score | FEMA rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fairfax County | 1,147,837 | 94.7 | Relatively High |
| Prince William County | 488,880 | 83.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Virginia Beach city | 456,349 | 57.9 | Relatively Low |
| Loudoun County | 432,998 | 78.1 | Relatively Low |
| Chesterfield County | 377,869 | 84.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| Henrico County | 335,744 | 83.4 | Relatively Moderate |
| Chesapeake city | 252,583 | 80.9 | Relatively Low |
| Arlington County | 236,254 | 66.8 | Relatively Low |
| Norfolk city | 233,596 | 81.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Richmond city | 229,359 | 78.4 | Relatively Low |
| Newport News city | 184,216 | 72.2 | Relatively Low |
| Stafford County | 163,466 | 65.0 | Relatively Low |
| Alexandria city | 156,976 | 73.7 | Relatively Low |
| Spotsylvania County | 146,603 | 52.9 | Relatively Low |
| Hampton city | 137,557 | 61.7 | Relatively Low |
| Albemarle County | 114,919 | 78.1 | Relatively Low |
| Hanover County | 112,879 | 53.5 | Relatively Low |
| Montgomery County | 99,101 | 47.5 | Relatively Low |
| Suffolk city | 98,796 | 60.1 | Relatively Low |
| Roanoke city | 98,355 | 72.9 | Relatively Low |
| Portsmouth city | 97,190 | 54.0 | Relatively Low |
| Roanoke County | 97,023 | 52.2 | Relatively Low |
| Frederick County | 95,008 | 44.7 | Relatively Low |
| Rockingham County | 85,600 | 75.0 | Relatively Low |
| James City County | 81,013 | 53.3 | Relatively Low |
| Bedford County | 80,894 | 51.2 | Relatively Low |
| Lynchburg city | 79,497 | 49.3 | Relatively Low |
| Augusta County | 78,033 | 68.6 | Relatively Low |
| Fauquier County | 74,577 | 47.7 | Relatively Low |
| York County | 71,005 | 44.7 | Relatively Low |
| Pittsylvania County | 59,856 | 63.8 | Relatively Low |
| Campbell County | 55,312 | 32.0 | Very Low |
| Franklin County | 55,130 | 42.7 | Very Low |
| Culpeper County | 54,397 | 46.2 | Relatively Low |
| Washington County | 53,926 | 46.6 | Relatively Low |
| Harrisonburg city | 51,392 | 26.6 | Very Low |
| Henry County | 49,980 | 63.6 | Relatively Low |
| Charlottesville city | 45,437 | 24.3 | Very Low |
| Shenandoah County | 44,925 | 59.8 | Relatively Low |
| Prince George County | 43,146 | 13.9 | Very Low |
| Manassas city | 42,976 | 16.6 | Very Low |
| Danville city | 42,214 | 68.0 | Relatively Low |
| Warren County | 41,531 | 31.6 | Very Low |
| Louisa County | 39,980 | 32.2 | Very Low |
| Isle of Wight County | 39,974 | 37.9 | Very Low |
| Tazewell County | 39,624 | 60.2 | Relatively Low |
| Gloucester County | 39,526 | 22.6 | Very Low |
| Orange County | 37,822 | 25.6 | Very Low |
| Wise County | 35,448 | 50.4 | Relatively Low |
| Botetourt County | 34,004 | 18.1 | Very Low |
| Pulaski County | 33,687 | 45.9 | Relatively Low |
| Halifax County | 33,639 | 47.0 | Relatively Low |
| Petersburg city | 33,537 | 17.0 | Very Low |
| Accomack County | 33,335 | 81.0 | Relatively Moderate |
| Caroline County | 32,098 | 20.7 | Very Low |
| Powhatan County | 31,555 | 21.1 | Very Low |
| Amherst County | 31,485 | 21.0 | Very Low |
| Mecklenburg County | 30,516 | 54.3 | Relatively Low |
| Smyth County | 29,420 | 57.8 | Relatively Low |
| Carroll County | 29,157 | 45.1 | Relatively Low |
| Fredericksburg city | 28,873 | 8.7 | Very Low |
| Dinwiddie County | 28,191 | 19.3 | Very Low |
| Wythe County | 28,188 | 48.7 | Relatively Low |
| Fluvanna County | 28,092 | 13.5 | Very Low |
| Winchester city | 27,913 | 16.9 | Very Low |
| King George County | 27,896 | 12.8 | Very Low |
| Goochland County | 26,410 | 15.5 | Very Low |
| Staunton city | 25,948 | 10.6 | Very Low |
| Salem city | 25,618 | 18.6 | Very Low |
| Russell County | 25,538 | 36.5 | Very Low |
| New Kent County | 25,105 | 14.1 | Very Low |
| Fairfax city | 25,026 | 5.3 | Very Low |
| Page County | 23,727 | 37.9 | Very Low |
| Hopewell city | 22,959 | 17.2 | Very Low |
| Waynesboro city | 22,841 | 10.3 | Very Low |
| Rockbridge County | 22,531 | 33.3 | Very Low |
| Prince Edward County | 21,996 | 32.4 | Very Low |
| Lee County | 21,900 | 57.3 | Relatively Low |
| Scott County | 21,479 | 42.0 | Very Low |
| Greene County | 21,155 | 9.3 | Very Low |
| Buchanan County | 19,415 | 50.6 | Relatively Low |
| Westmoreland County | 18,826 | 37.4 | Very Low |
| King William County | 18,593 | 8.3 | Very Low |
| Colonial Heights city | 18,352 | 6.0 | Very Low |
| Southampton County | 17,964 | 29.8 | Very Low |
| Patrick County | 17,512 | 20.9 | Very Low |
| Buckingham County | 16,976 | 19.0 | Very Low |
| Bristol city | 16,849 | 8.6 | Very Low |
| Manassas Park city | 16,798 | 4.9 | Very Low |
| Radford city | 16,726 | 2.6 | Very Low |
| Appomattox County | 16,610 | 5.1 | Very Low |
| Giles County | 16,557 | 16.6 | Very Low |
| Brunswick County | 15,841 | 28.1 | Very Low |
| Williamsburg city | 15,798 | 2.4 | Very Low |
| Nottoway County | 15,597 | 29.0 | Very Low |
| Floyd County | 15,593 | 6.6 | Very Low |
| Grayson County | 15,287 | 24.7 | Very Low |
| Clarke County | 15,216 | 6.9 | Very Low |
| Alleghany County | 14,859 | 38.1 | Very Low |
| Nelson County | 14,732 | 34.1 | Very Low |
| Falls Church city | 14,710 | 1.6 | Very Low |
| Madison County | 14,044 | 8.4 | Very Low |
| Dickenson County | 13,733 | 17.9 | Very Low |
| Martinsville city | 13,658 | 9.6 | Very Low |
| Amelia County | 13,462 | 12.0 | Very Low |
| Poquoson city | 12,639 | 2.4 | Very Low |
| Northumberland County | 12,188 | 40.0 | Very Low |
| Northampton County | 12,059 | 44.5 | Relatively Low |
| Lunenburg County | 12,016 | 19.8 | Very Low |
| Charlotte County | 11,422 | 17.4 | Very Low |
| Greensville County | 11,275 | 17.8 | Very Low |
| Lancaster County | 10,936 | 32.3 | Very Low |
| Middlesex County | 10,847 | 23.8 | Very Low |
| Sussex County | 10,765 | 13.2 | Very Low |
| Essex County | 10,623 | 18.6 | Very Low |
| Cumberland County | 9,818 | 19.7 | Very Low |
| Richmond County | 9,095 | 10.4 | Very Low |
| Mathews County | 8,540 | 12.2 | Very Low |
| Franklin city | 8,250 | 7.5 | Very Low |
| Lexington city | 7,525 | 3.7 | Very Low |
| Rappahannock County | 7,427 | 6.9 | Very Low |
| Galax city | 6,726 | 6.8 | Very Low |
| King and Queen County | 6,695 | 16.2 | Very Low |
| Charles City County | 6,627 | 9.3 | Very Low |
| Buena Vista city | 6,593 | 3.3 | Very Low |
| Surry County | 6,549 | 4.7 | Very Low |
| Bland County | 6,199 | 13.0 | Very Low |
| Covington city | 5,680 | 9.7 | Very Low |
| Emporia city | 5,547 | 5.0 | Very Low |
| Craig County | 4,856 | 6.2 | Very Low |
| Bath County | 4,100 | 5.4 | Very Low |
| Norton city | 3,577 | 1.6 | Very Low |
| Highland County | 2,296 | 2.5 | Very Low |
The county rows show FEMA's own county percentile scores and rating categories; the state figures above are our weighted means. County data cannot establish a property's safety. Expected loss is modeled annual loss per resident, not a premium quote. The insurance figure is what owners with a mortgage reported paying in 2024 (Census American Community Survey), not a current quote. For a specific home, check the address on FEMA's flood map and get insurance quotes before you commit. Our guide explains how to check natural disaster risk before you move.
Lowest FEMA county risk scores in Virginia
- Fairfax city 5.3
- Fredericksburg city 8.7
- Greene County 9.3
- Waynesboro city 10.3
- Staunton city 10.6
- King George County 12.8
- Fluvanna County 13.5
- Prince George County 13.9
Cities in Virginia
- Washington, D.C. county-score mean 82.9
- Virginia Beach, VA county-score mean 61.5
- Richmond, VA county-score mean 65.9
Frequently asked questions
Is Virginia safe from natural disasters?
Virginia's population-weighted county-score mean is 62.6 out of 100 (high county-score mean), #5 of 51 from the lowest mean in our state comparison. A state average cannot show whether an individual home is safe. About 13% of residents live in counties FEMA rates relatively high or very high.
What natural disasters happen in Virginia?
The highest population-weighted county hazard-score means in Virginia are hurricane, earthquake, lightning (means 79, 72, 70 on the 0–100 county-score scale). These are not national state percentiles.
Which counties have the lowest modeled risk scores in Virginia?
Among counties with at least 20,000 people, the lowest FEMA county risk scores are in Fairfax city, Fredericksburg city, Greene County. Conditions vary within each county; check an individual address separately.