Arizona natural disaster risk
Arizona ranks #50 of 51 from the lowest population-weighted county-score mean in our state comparison. Its highest hazard-score means are riverine flooding, wildfire, heat wave.
RelocateMath computes these state means by weighting FEMA county scores by population. A mean of county percentiles is not a national state percentile or an official FEMA state rating.
The vertical line marks county-score scale midpoint (50).
Find your county's risk in Arizona
All 15 county rows with a FEMA score are available below, initially ordered by population.
| County | Population | Risk score | FEMA rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa County | 4,559,748 | 99.9 | Very High |
| Pima County | 1,060,490 | 99.1 | Relatively High |
| Pinal County | 469,006 | 93.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| Yavapai County | 245,480 | 93.7 | Relatively Moderate |
| Mohave County | 220,517 | 94.8 | Relatively High |
| Yuma County | 211,741 | 92.6 | Relatively Moderate |
| Coconino County | 144,508 | 94.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Cochise County | 125,566 | 92.8 | Relatively Moderate |
| Navajo County | 108,415 | 88.1 | Relatively Moderate |
| Apache County | 65,341 | 78.8 | Relatively Low |
| Gila County | 53,795 | 90.2 | Relatively Moderate |
| Santa Cruz County | 48,926 | 88.3 | Relatively Moderate |
| Graham County | 39,232 | 64.6 | Relatively Low |
| La Paz County | 16,664 | 83.5 | Relatively Moderate |
| Greenlee County | 9,409 | 12.4 | Very Low |
The county rows show FEMA's own county percentile scores and rating categories; the state figures above are our weighted means. County data cannot establish a property's safety. Expected loss is modeled annual loss per resident, not a premium quote. The insurance figure is what owners with a mortgage reported paying in 2024 (Census American Community Survey), not a current quote. For a specific home, check the address on FEMA's flood map and get insurance quotes before you commit. Our guide explains how to check natural disaster risk before you move.
Lowest FEMA county risk scores in Arizona
- Graham County 64.6
- Apache County 78.8
- Navajo County 88.1
- Santa Cruz County 88.3
- Gila County 90.2
- Yuma County 92.6
- Cochise County 92.8
- Yavapai County 93.7
Cities in Arizona
- Phoenix, AZ county-score mean 99.3
- Tucson, AZ county-score mean 99.1
- Prescott, AZ county-score mean 93.7
Frequently asked questions
Is Arizona safe from natural disasters?
Arizona's population-weighted county-score mean is 97.7 out of 100 (very high county-score mean), #50 of 51 from the lowest mean in our state comparison. A state average cannot show whether an individual home is safe. About 79% of residents live in counties FEMA rates relatively high or very high.
What natural disasters happen in Arizona?
The highest population-weighted county hazard-score means in Arizona are riverine flooding, wildfire, heat wave (means 98, 98, 97 on the 0–100 county-score scale). These are not national state percentiles.
Which counties have the lowest modeled risk scores in Arizona?
Among counties with at least 20,000 people, the lowest FEMA county risk scores are in Graham County, Apache County, Navajo County. Conditions vary within each county; check an individual address separately.