{ "edition": "2026-10-20", "title": "When rent offsets modeled tax and payroll savings", "taxYear": 2026, "grossRentYear": 2024, "migrationYears": "2022–2023", "selection": "25 largest reported directed interstate return flows among the 50 states and D.C. in the project IRS 2022–2023 outflow dataset; ties sort by origin then destination abbreviation. Each flow appears at $50,000, $100,000 and $150,000. No flow or salary weighting.", "scenario": "Single full-year resident W-2 employee in each state independently; same annual wages; standard deduction; no children, itemization, retirement contributions, employee benefits, remote/cross-border work or midyear residency calculation.", "rounding": "Round each modeled annual net pay to cents first. Subtract the annual difference in published monthly gross rent; annual values retain cents. Break-even monthly gross rent rounds to cents; display rounding is not extra precision.", "limitations": [ "Tax plus gross rent only: not total living costs, profit, a moving-year return or the realized financial outcomes of people in the IRS records.", "2024 state medians are not current asking rents, a neighborhood quote or matched homes. Census gross rent includes contract rent and qualifying separately paid utilities/fuels; no EIA bill or RPP adjustment is added. Mixed source years are deliberate and are not an inflation forecast.", "Tax estimates reuse the bounded RelocateMath 2026 engine. MD/IN use approximate average county rates; other city/county taxes and many special adjustments/credits are excluded. Oregon annual planning inputs remain provisional pending final return instructions; see the linked methodology. IRS migration returns approximate households, not all movers, and do not reveal these synthetic salaries or financial gains.", "This frozen edition is not silently regenerated by a weekly rates update. A changed tax source/model or rent/flow projection requires an explicit checked new edition. The downloadable arithmetic reproducer checks housing arithmetic on the supplied modeled net pay; it does not independently verify tax law." ], "sources": [ { "name": "IRS SOI migration 2022–2023", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data", "file": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/stateoutflow2223.csv" }, { "name": "Census ACS 2024 one-year B25064 median gross rent", "url": "https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs1/groups/B25064.html" }, { "name": "Census gross-rent definition", "url": "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/technical-documentation/user-notes/2025-06.html" }, { "name": "IRS 2026 federal parameters, Rev. Proc. 2025-32", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rp-25-32.pdf" }, { "name": "Model scope and state-source links", "url": "https://relocatemath.com/methodology/" } ], "inputFingerprints": { "src/lib/taxRentStudy.js": "c79b1549af31619059271b6740a1f7c2f5428ac17381b87cd6bd9c84812f1c5c", "src/lib/compare.js": "3b7621998fa9689bb3ecb25117da97f847ae8e11b339abe4307e0b006ca39c0f", "src/lib/stateTax2026.js": "a84768036ed118a7651e6e880df1b65756df2501b4186c394993c67d9592a4b7", "src/lib/tax/tax2026.js": "1190725d55798e56316c1c3df8c66205d1cf1867bd428cfc2f1150302e8f1605", "src/lib/tax/years.js": "e9ce659f7370ebb967a160d1218129df4d722393f55b39c81d70c47943f6d7bd", "src/lib/tax/salaryInverse.js": "7696c1e467fc93d12245b935f0022232ce1c0d566c7f20da1ef6ac06f8bbf68b", "src/data/federal-tax-2026.json": "79edc0075a07660e641f0c2cd3fb78673feb884e0227d907a2933ab463ee66fa", "src/data/state-income-tax-2026.json": "29f65b76c547eb715264985660dbbd9bcbef0962f46a48573ee13f3619b04d3f", "src/data/state-child-credits-2026.json": "3783fd7e9bf8b0e3b79f1fcac0752d42ba0a9539be48f9989d5f35571c512cf9", "src/data/tax-years.json": "3e54abec4a62af54da52f47a783f4ff447cc1fc06c80d87a806ac897d14d978f", "costProjection": "6e7a8485d599c86044f2e9b35e30649b58f41961e8a6a310c2e64e61eb48fd68", "migrationFlowProjection": "f1348567d3d392c3bd9ed25a0a25a125081aca171795948bad4c9be537292cf4" }, "csvSha256": "7e5645798d034d383228f7fd8ec7d94b1b0bd73d650fca811f2ffe59347763cc", "columns": [ "flow_rank", "from", "to", "from_name", "to_name", "reported_returns_2022_2023", "annual_wages", "tax_year", "gross_rent_year", "net_pay_from", "net_pay_to", "net_pay_change", "monthly_gross_rent_from", "monthly_gross_rent_to", "annual_gross_rent_change", "after_tax_and_rent_change", "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent", "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent" ], "dictionary": { "flow_rank": "Rank 1–25 by reported return count, not by financial result.", "from": "Origin state/DC abbreviation.", "to": "Destination state/DC abbreviation.", "from_name": "Origin name.", "to_name": "Destination name.", "reported_returns_2022_2023": "IRS reported directed outflow returns, approximating households; repeat at every synthetic salary, never sum these repeats.", "annual_wages": "Same synthetic gross W-2 wages in each state, USD/year.", "tax_year": "Modeled tax year, 2026.", "gross_rent_year": "Census ACS one-year rent-observation edition, 2024.", "net_pay_from": "Modeled annual net wages in origin after included income/payroll taxes, USD.", "net_pay_to": "Equivalent annual modeled destination net wages, USD.", "net_pay_change": "Destination net pay minus origin net pay, USD/year.", "monthly_gross_rent_from": "Origin ACSmedian gross rent, USD/month.", "monthly_gross_rent_to": "Destination ACSmedian gross rent, USD/month.", "annual_gross_rent_change": "12×(destination monthly gross rent−origin monthly gross rent), USD/year.", "after_tax_and_rent_change": "Net-pay change−annual gross-rent change; positive means higher modeled tax-and-rent-only balance, not net profit.", "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": "Origin monthly gross rent+net-pay change/12, USD/month; a negative number means no nonnegative destination rent matches the origin balance.", "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": "true only when net-pay change > 0 and after-tax-and-rent change<0; describes a synthetic scenario, not all movers." }, "rows": [ { "flow_rank": 1, "from": "CA", "to": "TX", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Texas", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 44417, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40731.92, "net_pay_to": 42355, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1475, "net_pay_change": 1623.08, "annual_gross_rent_change": -7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 9171.08, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2239.26, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 1, "from": "CA", "to": "TX", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Texas", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 44417, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 72969.14, "net_pay_to": 79180, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1475, "net_pay_change": 6210.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": -7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 13758.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2621.57, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 1, "from": "CA", "to": "TX", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Texas", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 44417, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 102280.14, "net_pay_to": 113791, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1475, "net_pay_change": 11510.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": -7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 19058.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 3063.24, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 2, "from": "NY", "to": "NJ", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "New Jersey", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43699, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40036, "net_pay_to": 40739.85, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1800, "net_pay_change": 703.85, "annual_gross_rent_change": 1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -1288.15, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1692.65, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": true }, { "flow_rank": 2, "from": "NY", "to": "NJ", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "New Jersey", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43699, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 73908.34, "net_pay_to": 74389.55, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1800, "net_pay_change": 481.21, "annual_gross_rent_change": 1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -1510.79, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1674.1, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": true }, { "flow_rank": 2, "from": "NY", "to": "NJ", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "New Jersey", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43699, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 105088.03, "net_pay_to": 105605.55, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1800, "net_pay_change": 517.52, "annual_gross_rent_change": 1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -1474.48, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1677.13, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": true }, { "flow_rank": 3, "from": "NY", "to": "FL", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "Florida", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43187, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40036, "net_pay_to": 42355, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1812, "net_pay_change": 2319, "annual_gross_rent_change": 2136, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 183, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1827.25, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 3, "from": "NY", "to": "FL", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "Florida", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43187, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 73908.34, "net_pay_to": 79180, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1812, "net_pay_change": 5271.66, "annual_gross_rent_change": 2136, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 3135.66, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2073.31, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 3, "from": "NY", "to": "FL", "from_name": "New York", "to_name": "Florida", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 43187, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 105088.03, "net_pay_to": 113791, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1634, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1812, "net_pay_change": 8702.97, "annual_gross_rent_change": 2136, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 6566.97, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2359.25, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 4, "from": "CA", "to": "AZ", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Arizona", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28402, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40731.92, "net_pay_to": 41507.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1672, "net_pay_change": 775.58, "annual_gross_rent_change": -5184, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 5959.58, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2168.63, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 4, "from": "CA", "to": "AZ", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Arizona", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28402, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 72969.14, "net_pay_to": 77082.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1672, "net_pay_change": 4113.36, "annual_gross_rent_change": -5184, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 9297.36, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2446.78, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 4, "from": "CA", "to": "AZ", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Arizona", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28402, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 102280.14, "net_pay_to": 110443.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1672, "net_pay_change": 8163.36, "annual_gross_rent_change": -5184, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 13347.36, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2784.28, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 5, "from": "FL", "to": "GA", "from_name": "Florida", "to_name": "Georgia", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28263, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 42355, "net_pay_to": 40608.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1812, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1506, "net_pay_change": -1746.5, "annual_gross_rent_change": -3672, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 1925.5, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1666.46, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 5, "from": "FL", "to": "GA", "from_name": "Florida", "to_name": "Georgia", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28263, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 79180, "net_pay_to": 74938.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1812, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1506, "net_pay_change": -4241.5, "annual_gross_rent_change": -3672, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -569.5, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1458.54, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 5, "from": "FL", "to": "GA", "from_name": "Florida", "to_name": "Georgia", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 28263, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 113791, "net_pay_to": 107054.5, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1812, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1506, "net_pay_change": -6736.5, "annual_gross_rent_change": -3672, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -3064.5, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1250.63, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 6, "from": "NJ", "to": "NY", "from_name": "New Jersey", "to_name": "New York", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26793, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40739.85, "net_pay_to": 40036, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1800, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1634, "net_pay_change": -703.85, "annual_gross_rent_change": -1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 1288.15, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1741.35, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 6, "from": "NJ", "to": "NY", "from_name": "New Jersey", "to_name": "New York", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26793, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 74389.55, "net_pay_to": 73908.34, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1800, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1634, "net_pay_change": -481.21, "annual_gross_rent_change": -1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 1510.79, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1759.9, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 6, "from": "NJ", "to": "NY", "from_name": "New Jersey", "to_name": "New York", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26793, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 105605.55, "net_pay_to": 105088.03, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1800, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1634, "net_pay_change": -517.52, "annual_gross_rent_change": -1992, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 1474.48, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1756.87, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 7, "from": "CA", "to": "NV", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Nevada", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26210, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 40731.92, "net_pay_to": 42355, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1709, "net_pay_change": 1623.08, "annual_gross_rent_change": -4740, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 6363.08, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2239.26, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 7, "from": "CA", "to": "NV", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Nevada", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26210, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 72969.14, "net_pay_to": 79180, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1709, "net_pay_change": 6210.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": -4740, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 10950.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 2621.57, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 7, "from": "CA", "to": "NV", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Nevada", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 26210, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 102280.14, "net_pay_to": 113791, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 2104, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 1709, "net_pay_change": 11510.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": -4740, "after_tax_and_rent_change": 16250.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 3063.24, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 8, "from": "TX", "to": "CA", "from_name": "Texas", "to_name": "California", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 24970, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 42355, "net_pay_to": 40731.92, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1475, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 2104, "net_pay_change": -1623.08, "annual_gross_rent_change": 7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -9171.08, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 1339.74, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 8, "from": "TX", "to": "CA", "from_name": "Texas", "to_name": "California", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 24970, "annual_wages": 100000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 79180, "net_pay_to": 72969.14, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1475, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 2104, "net_pay_change": -6210.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": 7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -13758.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 957.43, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 8, "from": "TX", "to": "CA", "from_name": "Texas", "to_name": "California", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 24970, "annual_wages": 150000, "tax_year": 2026, "gross_rent_year": 2024, "net_pay_from": 113791, "net_pay_to": 102280.14, "monthly_gross_rent_from": 1475, "monthly_gross_rent_to": 2104, "net_pay_change": -11510.86, "annual_gross_rent_change": 7548, "after_tax_and_rent_change": -19058.86, "break_even_destination_monthly_gross_rent": 515.76, "take_home_advantage_reversed_by_rent": false }, { "flow_rank": 9, "from": "CA", "to": "WA", "from_name": "California", "to_name": "Washington", "reported_returns_2022_2023": 24625, "annual_wages": 50000, "tax_year": 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